Excellent articule - an esoteric concept explained lucidly.

My take from reading Matthew Syed's Rebel Ideas:

Prediction = Information + Error

For predictions to be 100% accurate, the error must be zero. Predicting the future is impossible. What Syed shows is that diverse crowds predict more accurately than a group of like-minded individuals. Why is this? Due to the cancellation of errors. In a diverse crowd, positive predictions cancel out negative predictions resulting in improved accuracy.

Would really appreciate your feedback on my article!


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